Drought conditions intensifying across central and northern NSW
- Low rainfall totals have continued across much of northern NSW during April, further impacting on-ground conditions in drought affected areas.
- On farm water storage levels are becoming critical in many areas, influencing farm management decisions, particularly for livestock enterprises.
- Short-term indicators highlight the impact of the drier conditions, with soil moisture levels below 10% for much of inland NSW.
- On-ground reports suggest that livestock producers are implementing drought management strategies, for instance destocking, purchasing fodder and confinement feeding. Saleyard numbers for livestock have been increasing over the last month.
Drought recovery remains mixed across southern, western and central tablelands districts
- Drought is in different stages of recovery in southern NSW, with production opportunities dependent on rainfall and stored soil moisture.
- Conditions have been dry across NSW during April. Regional and farm-to-farm variation is high and production outlooks for most of southern NSW are still highly dependent on follow-up rainfall. The full influence of early May rainfall will not be reflected in the drought indicators until later in May.
- Follow-up falls in early May (at the time of writing this report) will aid in further recovery. Producers will be focused on forecasts and outlooks to inform further farm management decisions, particularly livestock and winter crop strategies.
- Winter cropping programs are mixed, dependent on rainfall and soil moisture with cautious decisions around varieties, timing of sowing and input costs. Confidence varies by region, with some areas taking advantage of soil moisture, whilst in other regions sowing hasn’t commenced due to dry conditions, or a lack of follow-up rainfall.
- Early season frosts were recorded for parts of the Murray, Riverina, Central Tablelands and South East LLS regions.
Area in the ‘Drought Affected’ category of the NSW CDI has risen to approximately 57% at the end of April
- Drought conditions remain complex across NSW.
- The regional drought footprint continues to shift, with some areas transitioning into one of the NSW-CDI drought categories (particularly in the north and northeast of NSW), while other areas continue the short-term recovery (such as some parts of the Riverina and Murray regions).
- Parts of the Hunter, North West and Central West transitioned into the more severe “Drought” category during April, as a result of long-term rainfall deficits, combined with warmer temperatures.
More detail is available for each LLS region in the regional breakdown section of this Update.
Climate Outlook
The most likely outcome is for drought conditions to persist across much of NSW.
- The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook highlights low to neutral chances (25-55% chance) of rainfall being above the median for the three-month period to 31 July 2026.
- DPIRD’s Drought Forecast is that the most likely outcome is for much of the state to be in the ‘Drought Affected’ category at the end of July 2026 forecast period.
- At a regional level drought conditions will likely intensify across parts of central and northern NSW. The risk of limited recovery, and a potential return of drought conditions remains for parts of the Murray and Riverina.
Status of El Nino development
- Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the main influence of an El Niño event, are currently neutral.
- Sub-sea surface temperatures show warmer water moving closer to the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
- International models forecast that an El Niño may develop and continue through winter 2026. However, forecasts have less certainty at this time of the year, due to the autumn predictability barrier.
- If El Niño conditions do develop, the impacts on NSW climate are less clear; ENSO is only one of many drivers that influence weather and climate in NSW. It is important to continue to monitor ocean and atmospheric conditions, along with rainfall and temperature outlooks over the coming months.
More information can be found in the Seasonal Outlook and Drought Forecast sections.
Support Services
Producers and members of rural communities are encouraged to maintain contact with their local professionals who can facilitate access to appropriate support.
Local Land Services can assist landholders with drought planning and preparedness extension services; provide technical support including animal nutrition and management advice. Visit the LLS Drought Adoption Officer program website to find your local contact and more information.
The Rural Financial Counselling Service provide free, unbiased, independent, confidential and expert support to rural businesses in NSW. Contact RFCS Central and Southern NSW or RFCS Northern Region.
The Rural Adversity Mental Health Program (RAMHP) is a non-clinical program funded by the NSW Ministry of Health delivering mental health promotion, prevention, and early intervention initiatives to help people to better prepare for, respond to and recovery from adversity. Visit their website to find out more.
Visit DroughtHub for support resources including business planning at: droughthub.nsw.gov.au
Source: NSW Local Land Service Update
